01 — The Compound Effect 交通習慣移轉的複利效應01 — The Compound Effect
想像一個最小的承諾:從 2026 年起,每人每月選一天,把私人汽機車留在家,改用步行、自行車、大眾運輸或共享運具。第二年,每月兩天;第三年,三天——每年只增加一天。聽起來微不足道,但習慣的複利會在 25 年內改寫台灣的街道:這不是科技問題,是 2,300 萬人的選擇問題。以下是這個情境的推估。
Imagine the smallest possible commitment: starting 2026, every person picks one day a month to leave the car or scooter at home — walk, cycle, ride transit or shared mobility. Year two: two days. Year three: three — just one more day each year. It sounds negligible, but compounding habits rewrite Taiwan's streets within 25 years. A scenario estimate:
為什麼換綠運輸能救命?交通死傷來自「暴露」——少一個人開車騎車上路,就少一次碰撞的機會。
大眾運輸每人每公里的死亡率,是私人汽機車的數十分之一;而走路、騎單車的人愈多,駕駛愈會禮讓、城市愈願意建人行道(safety in numbers),整體再降。把「私人運具的一天」換成「綠運輸的一天」,就是直接抽掉高風險的暴露。
Why does shifting modes save lives? Casualties come from exposure — one fewer car or scooter on the road is one fewer chance of a crash.
Public transport's death rate per passenger-km is a small fraction of private cars and scooters; and the more people walk and cycle, the more drivers yield and the more cities build for them (safety in numbers). Swapping a private-vehicle day for a green day removes high-risk exposure directly.
STEP 1
換掉多少比例?How much is shifted?
第 N 年 = 每人每月 N 天綠運輸。一個月約 30.4 天,所以被換掉的私人運具旅次比例 = N ÷ 30.4。Year N = N green days/month. A month is ≈ 30.4 days, so the share of private-vehicle trips shifted = N ÷ 30.4.
2035 年:10 ÷ 30.4 = 33%2035: 10 ÷ 30.4 = 33%
STEP 2
換算成少多少死傷?Turned into fewer casualties
換掉 33% ≠ 死傷降 33%。部分風險會移轉、效果非線性,所以保守乘 0.7(打七折)——寧可少算、不誇大。A 33% shift ≠ 33% fewer casualties. Some risk transfers and effects are non-linear, so we apply a conservative 0.7 pass-through — under-count rather than over-claim.
33% × 0.7 = 死傷降 23%33% × 0.7 = 23% fewer
STEP 3
乘現況,逐年累積Compound, year by year
拯救生命 = 現況死亡 × 下降比例。不是某年省一千條,而是每年都省一點、且逐年增加,25 年加總成大數字。Lives saved = current deaths × the reduction. Not one big year — a little saved every year, growing, summing over 25 years.
彰化每年少 32 死 → 2050 累計 1,033 命Changhua −32/yr → 1,033 by 2050
Green-Transport Share
綠運輸使用率Green-transport share
—
Public-Transport Share
公共運輸使用率Public-transport share
CO₂ Avoided / yr
年減碳量CO₂ avoided per year
—
Urban Space Freed
釋出都市空間Urban space freed
—
Road Deaths
道路死亡(vs 不積極作為情境)Road deaths vs no-action
—
每一年,累計拯救的生命Lives saved, accumulating year by year
到 2050 累計 — 條生命— lives by 2050
⚙ 模型假設(情境推估,非預測——所有參數公開供檢驗)⚙ Model assumptions (a scenario, not a forecast — all parameters open for review)
轉移率:第 N 年 = 每月 N 天 ÷ 30.4 天,即私人運具人日的轉移比例(2035 年 32.9%、2050 年 82.2%)。
運輸比率基準(交通部 111 年「民眾日常使用運具狀況調查」):公共運輸 14.3%、綠運輸(公共運輸+步行+自行車)27.7%。情境下兩者隨轉移率上升 — 公共運輸升向 40%、綠運輸升向 70% 的 2050 願景上限。
減碳:私人汽機車客運年排碳以 22 MtCO₂e 計(運輸部門 ~37 Mt × 公路客運私人占比),每轉移日淨減排 80%(綠運輸仍有少量排放);樹木換算 12 kg CO₂/棵·年。
空間:汽車 850 萬輛 × 18.75 m²(1.5 格停車位)、機車 1,450 萬輛 × 4 m²;使用減少傳導至持有的彈性 0.6;大安森林公園 = 0.259 km²。
死亡:死亡與私人機動運具暴露成正比,傳導係數 0.7(部分風險移轉至行人/自行車,並考慮 safety-in-numbers 效應);不積極作為情境以年 1,600 死保守持平計。
所有參數見原始碼,歡迎以不同假設重算。
Shift rate: year N = N days/month ÷ 30.4 = fraction of private-vehicle person-days shifted (32.9% by 2035, 82.2% by 2050).
Mode-share baselines (MOTC 2022 National Travel Survey): public transport 14.3%, green transport (public + walking + cycling) 27.7%. In the scenario both rise with the shift — public transport toward a 40% ceiling, green transport toward a 70% aspirational 2050 ceiling.
CO₂: private cars + motorcycles ≈ 22 MtCO₂e/yr; each shifted day nets −80%; tree equivalence 12 kg CO₂/tree·yr.
Space: 8.5M cars × 18.75 m² (1.5 parking stalls) + 14.5M motorcycles × 4 m²; usage→ownership elasticity 0.6; Daan Forest Park = 0.259 km².
Deaths: proportional to private motorized exposure, pass-through 0.7 (some risk shifts to active modes; safety-in-numbers applies); BAU held flat at 1,600 deaths/yr, conservatively.
All parameters are in the source — rerun with your own assumptions.
02 — Five Demands 五大訴求02 — Five Demands
From data to action · 從資料到行動
這份地圖記錄死亡,
但我們的目的不是哀悼,是改變。 This map counts the dead.
But the goal is not to mourn — it is to change.
但我們的目的不是哀悼,是改變。 This map counts the dead.
But the goal is not to mourn — it is to change.
17,175 條人命,不是「個人不小心」,而是制度長年累積的代價。
2026 是地方選舉年,是迫使候選人承諾的關鍵時刻。請與我們一同連署,要求五大訴求入政見。 17,175 deaths are not the cost of carelessness — they are the cost of a system that put motorcycles in the place of choice. 2026 is a local-election year. Make every candidate commit to the Five Demands.
2026 是地方選舉年,是迫使候選人承諾的關鍵時刻。請與我們一同連署,要求五大訴求入政見。 17,175 deaths are not the cost of carelessness — they are the cost of a system that put motorcycles in the place of choice. 2026 is a local-election year. Make every candidate commit to the Five Demands.
01
LAW · 立法
立法保障Legislative Protection
制定《雙零交通願景自治條例》Enact the Dual-Zero Transport Vision Ordinance
- 副市長以上層級統籌跨局處轉型機制Cross-department coordination at deputy mayor level or above
- 永續交通轉型基金:50% 交通罰鍰 + 停車收益Sustainable Transport Fund: 50% of traffic fines + parking fees
- 法制化專家與公民參與,決策透明Mandatory expert + civic participation, transparent decisions
02
SPACE · 空間
道路空間重分配Road Space Redistribution
打造實體防護的主動運輸路網Build a physically protected active transport network
- 慢車道改造為實體庇護、遮蔭之自行車網Protected, shaded cycling network in slow lanes
- 三年內優先完成大眾運輸場站及學校周邊改造Pedestrian-friendly fixes near stations and schools in 3 years
- 公共運輸市佔率每年 +1–2%+1–2% transit modal share per year
03
STREET · 街道
友善宜居生活街道Liveable Living Streets
落實住宅區生活街道建設Residential streets built for people
- 區分穿越型道路與服務街道,住宅區交通寧靜化Classify through-roads vs service streets, calm residential zones
- 路幅縮減、減速平台等實體降速設施Narrowing, speed tables, physical speed reduction
- TOD 場站周邊保障社會住宅Social housing near TOD transit hubs
04
VOLUME · 總量
總量管理Volume Management
以價制量與低碳管控Price-based control + low-carbon regulation
- 停車空間總量上限;釋出空間改種樹、設單車道Cap parking supply; repurpose for trees + cycling
- 任期內推動「低碳交通區」Designate Low-Carbon Transport Zones
- 協調中央推動燃油車輛總量管理Coordinate with central gov on fuel-vehicle fleet
05
WELFARE · 幸福
幸福交通Happy Commute & Welfare
友善勞動通勤 · 不遺落任何人Worker-friendly · Leave no one behind
- 企業綠色通勤獎勵:補助大眾運輸與單車Green Commute Reward: subsidise transit + cycling
- 全面落實包容性設計(孩童、長者、身障)Inclusive design (children, elderly, disabled)
- 確保交通轉型不遺落任何人No one gets left behind in the transition
我們不是在請求,我們是在要求。連署結果將公開提交各縣市候選人,並追蹤承諾執行進度。發起單位:還路於民行人路權促進會 × TCAN 台灣氣候行動網絡。
We are not asking. We are demanding. Petition results will be submitted publicly to all candidates with ongoing tracking. Organised by Vision Zero Taiwan × TCAN.
資料夥伴 · 合作單位
In partnership with
